Analyst: Fed Rate Hike Probability at 92.7%, US Stocks and Bitcoin Face Pullback Risk

On September 16, CryptoQuant certified analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that CME "FedWatch" data shows a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, with the target rate range potentially rising to 3.75%—4.00%.

Across seven initial rate hike cycles since 1988, the S&P 500 declined in five instances six weeks later, with an average drop of 2.83%. The market has largely priced in this rate hike expectation, with subsequent focus shifting to the policy path; if the Fed signals a higher frequency of hikes or a longer period of elevated rates, it could further pressure US stocks and Bitcoin.

[TechFlow]