Analyst: Waller Revives September Rate Hike Possibility, but Key Depends on September Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI Data

August 29 news, according to Jinshi, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday evening was considered quite hawkish. On forward guidance, Waller said what the market expected him to say—that he does not believe in forward guidance, thus refusing to pre-commit to a September rate hike. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller stated that fighting inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in some detail, though he also added that he is confident core inflation is moving toward the Fed's target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market expected. During Waller's Jackson Hole speech, the market significantly repriced September Fed decisions, with the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%.