Arabica Coffee Hits One-Month High on Tight Inventories and Weather Concerns

【Arabica Coffee Hits One-Month High on Tight Inventories and Weather Concerns】

⑴ Arabica coffee futures rose to a one-month high on Friday, as concerns intensified over persistently low exchange inventories.

⑵ Certified stocks stood at approximately 240,000 bags, not far from the 27-year low of about 220,000 bags hit last month, with inventory replenishment slower than previously expected.

⑶ The market worries that Brazilian supply may struggle to reach exchange warehouses before December contract expiry, potentially prolonging the tight inventory situation.

⑷ El Niño weather could curb Brazil's output next year, and the recent strength of the Brazilian real have jointly provided support for coffee prices.

⑸ Robusta coffee rose about 2% to above $3,400 per ton, as Vietnam's new-crop harvest gets underway, with production expected to be broadly flat versus last year.

⑹ In cocoa, London cocoa edged lower, after touching roughly a one-month high on Wednesday.

⑺ Cocoa grinding volumes in major processing regions rose about 14% in the third quarter, with demand further recovering from the 2025 trough.

⑻ Some institutions believe cocoa demand has emerged from the slump that followed the sharp price surge in 2024.

⑼ New York cocoa ticked up, after hitting a one-month peak on Wednesday.

⑽ Raw sugar fell about 2%, after touching a 19-month high on Wednesday, with Brazil's Center-South sugar production in the second half of September down about 6% year on year.

⑾ Excessive rainfall in Brazil has slowed crushing pace and reduced sugarcane sugar content, while drought in Europe and dry weather in India also weigh on supply.

⑿ Going forward, attention will focus on Brazil's weather developments, exchange inventory changes, and harvest progress in major producing regions for price direction.