AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Rises Above 113.50 as Bullish Momentum Persists Above 100-Day SMA

During early European trading on Friday, AUD/JPY traded in positive territory near 113.54, extending its short-term bullish pattern. Despite signs of cooling in the Australian labor market, the Australian dollar remained firm against the Japanese yen, with the pair holding steadily above the 100-day simple moving average, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

**Short-Term Technical Structure Bullish**

The daily chart shows AUD/JPY maintaining a short-term bullish bias, with the price above the 100-day simple moving average and the 20-day middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator also presents bullish signals, supporting further upside tests toward the upper Bollinger Band region. Market signals indicate that as long as the pair holds key moving average support, the constructive outlook will not easily change.

**Fundamentals Await Catalyst**

Recent Australian employment data showed weakness, with the labor market cooling, but this has not halted the AUD/JPY uptrend. Market analysis suggests that the overall weak yen environment provides the primary driver for the cross pair. The next major event is the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes due next Tuesday, where investors will seek clues on policymakers' assessments of the economic outlook and rate path, which could provide new directional guidance for AUD/JPY.

**Risks and Focus Points**

Despite the bullish technical picture, whether the pair can sustain further gains above 113.50 remains to be seen. A subsequent loss of the 100-day simple moving average would challenge the short-term bullish structure. Additionally, market sentiment volatility and a potential rebound in safe-haven demand for the yen could also constrain upside room for the cross pair.