AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Rises Toward 114.50, Bullish Tone Dominates Above 100-Day SMA

During early European trading on Thursday, AUD/JPY extended its recent gains, with the pair currently trading near 114.49, holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), with a short-term bullish tone dominating. At the time of writing, the cross had approached the 114.45 region and is now edging closer to the 114.50 level.

**100-Day SMA Forms Key Support**

From a technical perspective, the 100-day simple moving average continues to provide effective support for AUD/JPY, and the bullish structure is maintained as long as the pair trades above this average. Market signals indicate that as long as the price holds above this average, the short-term upside bias is likely to persist, with initial resistance at the 114.50 level. A successful break above this level could open room for further upside.

**Yen Intervention Expectations and AUD Fundamentals Intertwine**

On the yen front, markets remain wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. According to Goldman Sachs research strategists, intervention "is not a sustainable solution and ultimately only buys some time," with yen gains fading. Meanwhile, upcoming remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock are also in focus, as markets seek further clues on the policy direction for the Australian dollar. With these two factors intertwined, AUD/JPY maintains a firm but volatile tone above the moving average.

**Short-Term Outlook Bullish but Risks to Watch**

Overall, the bullish structure of AUD/JPY above the 100-day SMA remains intact for now, with the current price just a step away from the 114.50 resistance level. However, if the pair unexpectedly falls back below this average, the short-term bias could turn negative, with downside support to watch at previous low areas. Traders are awaiting more catalysts to determine whether this rally can escalate further.