Bitcoin Breaks $80K with Low Whale Participation—Can the Rally Sustain?

Bitcoin has surged 25% over the past seven days, but whale profit-taking and key resistance levels may determine whether this rally marks a bullish reversal or another bear-market bounce.

Can Spot Demand Support BTC's Rally?

Top technical analyst Benjamin Cowen said in an interview with David Lin on Tuesday that Bitcoin's latest breakout began shortly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to increase Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.

A massive short squeeze helped drive Bitcoin's initial breakout, alongside some spot demand.

But his whale activity indicator shows that large players' participation has been surprisingly low during the recent advance.

While whale activity surged near Bitcoin's 2018 and 2022 lows, current readings remain near low levels despite the rapid rally.

Cowen sees Bitcoin's 50-week moving average near $80,000–$81,000 as a key test for this rally.

Multiple weekly closes above that level could weaken the bearish scenario, while a rejection could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a decline toward the realized price in the low-$50,000 range.

New Whales Book Record $1.2B in Profits

CryptoQuant data adds another test to this rally.

New Bitcoin whales realized over $1.2 billion in profits within three days, marking the largest profit-taking event on record for this cohort. Realized profits peaked at approximately $614 million on August 20, setting a single-day record.

Bitcoin's breakout above the short-term whale realized price brought recently accumulated whale positions back into profit, triggering a key demand test.

Holding near $70,000 as profit-taking subsides could indicate that fresh demand is absorbing whale selling, CryptoQuant noted on Tuesday.

However, a break below that level amid continued distribution could suggest this rally is providing an exit opportunity for previously trapped holders.

Is $57,000 Bitcoin's Bottom?

Cowen said Bitcoin's rally increases the likelihood that $57,000 marks the cycle bottom, although some on-chain metrics have yet to reset.

A sustained breakout above the 50-week moving average would reinforce that scenario, while a rejection could push BTC back into the $60,000 range.

Despite downside risks, Cowen does not plan to short Bitcoin, noting that the second half of U.S. midterm election years has historically been a favorable accumulation period, setting the stage for potentially stronger markets in 2027 and 2028.