Bitcoin Structure Improves, but $83,000 Remains Key Level

Bitcoin closed last week near its 50-week moving average, indicating improving market structure, but insufficient spot demand keeps $83,000 as a key level for confirming a bullish outlook.

Is Bitcoin's Bearish Thesis Weakening?

Benjamin Cowen noted on Monday that Bitcoin's push to around $82,292 formed a short-term higher high, but it remains below the May high, so the broader bearish market structure has not yet been broken.

He said the length of time Bitcoin spends near the 50-week moving average now matters.

The longer Bitcoin stays near the 50-week moving average, the greater the likelihood of a breakout, because rejections in bear markets typically occur quickly.

Cowen stated: "Multiple closes above the 50-week moving average often mark the end of a bear market."

This makes the next few trading sessions particularly important for bears.

Macro Factors May Determine the Next Move

Bitcoin's pullback followed stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data, which raised rate hike expectations, and upcoming inflation data could serve as the next catalyst.

Cowen said Bitcoin's 40% rebound does not rule out another decline, as similar rallies have occurred in past bear markets.

However, if BTC continues to hold near the 50-week moving average, the bearish case could quickly weaken.

Spot Demand Still Needs Confirmation

CryptoQuant predicts that Bitcoin needs sustained spot buying to absorb available supply and decisively break through the $82,000-$83,000 zone.

However, data from September 8 paints a constructive but incomplete picture.

Bitcoin ETF holdings continue to rise, large investors are accumulating, and a significant bid wall has formed near the current price.

Binance reserves remain elevated at approximately 685,000-687,000 BTC, leaving substantial potential seller supply in the market.

The 7-day average exchange net inflow has also climbed to around 593 BTC, while stablecoin inflows are increasing.

This means available Bitcoin supply and potential purchasing power are rising simultaneously.

Bitcoin's leverage ratio has eased somewhat, but elevated open interest on Binance suggests this recovery is not entirely spot-driven. Profits among short-term holders and the movement of older coins also add to the risk of renewed selling pressure.