Bitcoin Surges 20% in Three Days to Record High, Analyst Says Bottom Is In

Prominent macro analyst Lyn Alden told CNBC on Thursday that bitcoin's bottom is essentially confirmed across all metrics, stating "the bull market has restarted."

Why Alden believes bitcoin's bottom is in

Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo noted on X that Alden told CNBC that fast money has already exited, Strategy will not sell, and there are few remaining downside catalysts.

She added that the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve will shift toward financial repression policies, which she sees as a favorable backdrop for bitcoin.

What volatility data shows

Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts posted on X that this week's two-day bitcoin gain ranks as the fifth-largest since 2018 on a volatility-adjusted basis, reaching 4.4 sigma, a reading that ordinary counter-trend moves cannot produce.

The closest historical comparisons are the 2018 and 2019 cycle lows, both of which marked true inflection points rather than temporary bounces.

Following rallies of this magnitude, bitcoin has historically closed higher more than 70% of the time over the subsequent 30 to 180 days.

Additionally, he noted significant supply pressure near the $80,000 low, a key level bitcoin needs to break through to extend the rally further.

Why bitcoin is flashing a liquidity warning signal

Coutts argued that bitcoin is resuming its role as the earliest signal for liquidity direction.

The U.S. Treasury's bond buyback move this week shifted a liquidity backdrop that was about to turn negative, pushing the dollar lower and dragging down the yield curve.

But the underlying debt supply issue remains unresolved, meaning more interventions could be on the way.

What ETF data shows

Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $606.29 million on August 20, led by BlackRock's IBIT with a single-day net inflow of $502.99 million, the largest single-day net inflow since May 1, according to SoSoValue data.

Weekly net inflows exceeded $1.6 billion with one trading day still remaining, already marking the strongest week of 2026 and the highest since the week of October 10, 2025.