Brent Crude: Watch Support at $84/$83 – Société Générale

Brent crude is currently trading near $87.12 per barrel, extending its pullback from the $95 resistance level. Analysts at Société Générale note that after prices retreated from testing the $95 resistance—formed by the prior downside gap and the downtrend line since April—and failed to hold above the 200-day moving average, downside risks have increased.

**Key Support Under Test**

According to Société Générale's analysis, after losing the 200-day moving average, Brent crude is inclined to continue retreating toward the key support zone. The institution views the $84/$83 range as an important support level; if prices can stabilize in this area, it may ease the recent decline. Conversely, a break below this support could open the door to further downside. Previously, oil prices experienced a sharp rebound last month, but after the rally began near $81.40, it encountered strong resistance around the $95 level.

**Geopolitical Turmoil Keeps Market Volatile**

Behind recent oil price swings, geopolitical factors continue to intertwine. Market reports indicate that US-Iran tensions are rapidly shifting between escalation and de-escalation, pulling prices in both directions. On one hand, Iran re-imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after briefly opening it and seized a commercial vessel on "maritime violation" grounds—the first such ship seizure since the US-Israel war with Iran began in late February—heightening concerns over supply disruptions. On the other hand, US President Trump agreed to extend the ceasefire with Iran but maintained the maritime blockade, while Iran remains defiant and negotiations have stalled. This "fight-and-talk" deadlock leaves oil prices oscillating at high levels without a clear directional driver.

**Near-Term Focus on Support Effectiveness**

Overall, technical pressure and recurring geopolitical headlines are tilting Brent crude toward weak consolidation in the near term. Market attention will center on the effectiveness of the $84/$83 support zone. If geopolitical tensions do not escalate further, technical selling pressure could push prices to continue testing lower support; conversely, any sudden supply disruption event could trigger a short-term rebound. Investors should closely monitor US-Iran negotiation progress and changes in transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz.