CEE FX: Rating Downgrade Adds to Regional FX Pressure – ING

Central and Eastern European foreign exchange markets opened the week under additional pressure. ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky noted that Moody's downgraded Poland's sovereign rating to A3, adding a negative catalyst for regional assets at the start of the quieter second half of the month. Elevated energy prices, a stronger US dollar, and limited progress on US-Iran tensions continued to weigh on sentiment, with ING maintaining its overall bearish view on CEE currencies.

**Upside Risks for the Czech Koruna and Polish Zloty**

ING sees the fair value range for EUR/CZK around 24.300–24.350, suggesting the exchange rate still has modest upside room. The pair closed above 24.250 after the Czech central bank meeting, confirming ING's upside risk assessment. For EUR/PLN, ING strategists explicitly flagged further upside risks, implying the zloty may remain under pressure in the near term.

**Potential Support Window for the Hungarian Forint**

On EUR/HUF, ING expects the exchange rate to continue rising in the short term, but the key variable lies in the upcoming Hungarian central bank meeting. According to ING's analysis, the forint could gain potential support around the meeting, potentially pulling the pair back toward 362. At the time of writing, authoritative real-time quotes showed EUR/HUF trading near 364, still above this expected pullback target, indicating the market has not yet fully priced in potential policy support signals from the central bank.

Overall, with constrained global risk appetite combined with local rating events, the weak trend in CEE currencies is unlikely to reverse in the short term, though individual central bank meetings may provide temporary buffer opportunities for specific currencies.