Crude Oil Is "Back," Refined Products Are Not: Global Refining Gap Widening

Goldman Sachs says global refined product exports are down about 6 million barrels per day year-over-year, with the Persian Gulf and Russia accounting for three-quarters of the decline. Unlike crude oil, which can be rerouted, damaged refineries cannot be relocated, and Persian Gulf refined product exports have only recovered to 40% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs expects global refinery utilization rates not to recover until the second half of 2027, and has accordingly raised its 2027 diesel margin forecast by more than twofold.