Crypto Market Bets on Democrats Retaking House and Senate in Midterms

Cryptocurrency market participants currently expect a greater than 50% probability that Democrats will take control of both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.

Democrats Hold the Advantage

Polygon-based Polymarket pricing currently shows a 51% probability that Democrats will control both chambers, up from 45% a month ago.

A year ago, that probability stood at 26%; in early 2026, it was 34%.

Democrats are the frontrunners to retake control of the House, with a win probability of 89%. The Senate race is tighter, with Democrats holding a 51% probability of regaining control.

Republicans currently control both the House and Senate. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3.

Trump's Approval Rating Sliding?

This shift in probability comes amid a sharp decline in President Donald Trump's approval rating, with some polls showing his overall approval as low as 32% to 34%.

Surveys conducted in August found that Americans now trust Democrats more than Republicans on economic management, ending nearly a decade of Republican advantage.

This shift in public opinion comes as conflict with Iran pushes energy prices higher. August set a new record, with the national average gasoline price reaching $4.056 per gallon, breaking the previous record of $3.940 per gallon set in 2022.

Trump defended the rise in gasoline prices, calling it a necessary cost of seeking the denuclearization of Iran, and stated he would "never apologize" because he "did the right thing."