Dollar Index Price Forecast: Bears Hold the Upper Hand, 200-Day SMA Caps Rebound

The Dollar Index attempted a modest rebound on Wednesday, but the advance met resistance at the 200-day simple moving average just above the 99.00 level, with the index currently trading near 98.96. The broader bearish trend remains unchanged. Technically, bears continue to hold the upper hand, with the 200-day moving average acting as a formidable resistance barrier in the near term.

**200-Day MA Caps Rebound Potential**

The Dollar Index has retreated since hitting a three-month high last week, with this week's rebound attempt clearly stalling near the 200-day moving average. This average, located above 99.00, constitutes key technical resistance. Market analysts note that without a decisive break above this level, the dollar will struggle to reverse its recent weak pattern. ThinkMarkets analysts suggest the dollar's direction is constrained, requiring a break above 99.800 to open upside room, with the current price still notably below that level.

**Persistent Fundamental Downside Pressure**

With fundamentals unchanged, the Dollar Index is likely to remain under pressure. ThinkMarkets' analysis points to a downside target near the previous low of 96.180. However, if fundamental shifts occur—such as hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve—the dollar could reverse, with a target level to watch at the previous high of 96.980. Market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path remain divided, but overall, the structural pressure on the dollar has yet to subside.

**Key Battle Amid Bull-Bear Divergence**

Despite bears holding the advantage, bullish voices also exist in the market. Some analysts note that if the dollar can break through the 100-100.5 resistance zone, the medium-term target could extend to 101.80, based on factors such as rebounding U.S. inflation data, rising long-term Treasury yields, and the Fed's cautious stance. However, with the price failing to reclaim the 200-day moving average, bulls still need more catalysts to turn the tide. In the near term, the 99.00-99.80 zone will be a critical battleground for both bulls and bears.