Ethereum Rebounds 30%, Analyst Says Stock Market Direction Key

According to renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum's 30% rebound last week may still face a major test before achieving a more lasting recovery.

Has Ethereum's Bottom Formed?

In Monday's podcast, Cowen noted that after rebounding 70% from a low of around $1,600, Ethereum is approaching the "fair value" range of $2,300-$2,400 in its regression model. Meanwhile, it is also testing the 200-day moving average.

He believes Ethereum has stronger reasons for having bottomed than Bitcoin, pointing out that it historically tends to form cyclical lows during the summer.

"If the stock market doesn't decline over the next month or two, the probability that Ethereum's bottom is in is roughly 70%," he said.

Cowen wants to see ETH hold above that level for one to two months, noting that a similar breakout in August 2025 was reversed within the following month.

In the near term, Cowen is watching Ethereum's 200-day moving average, an area where it struggled in May.

However, his long-term outlook is much more optimistic.

If Ethereum can withstand any year-end stock market correction and hold its lows, Cowen believes this pattern could become increasingly bullish through 2027. This could pave the way for a new bull run and ultimately new all-time highs.

Is a Stock Market Correction the Biggest Risk?

Cowen identified a year-end stock market correction as the primary threat to Ethereum.

Historically, ETH amplifies stock market declines. He noted that roughly 20% corrections in the S&P 500 in 2022 and early 2025 coincided with Ethereum declines of approximately 50%.

A more moderate 10% stock market correction could translate into an ETH pullback of about 25%, potentially allowing Ethereum to establish a higher low. But a 20% stock market decline could threaten ETH's cyclical low of around $1,500.

"If the stock market doesn't decline, then the likelihood that Ethereum's bottom is in is very high," Cowen said.