EUR/JPY Forecast: Holding Above 185.50, Near 9-Day EMA

EUR/JPY held steady during Friday's Asian session, trading around 185.76 after a modest gain in the previous session. The daily chart shows the pair continuing to operate within an ascending channel, with the overall bullish bias remaining intact.

**Short-term moving averages provide support**

The price is currently holding firmly above the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating near-term momentum favors the upside. The 185.50 level has emerged as a key near-term support, with its validity being preliminarily confirmed. As long as the pair sustains above this level, the ascending channel structure remains intact, leaving room for further upside attempts. According to technical analysis, the bullish pattern is unlikely to reverse unless the price breaks below the lower boundary of the channel.

**Resistance and potential targets above**

Despite the ongoing bullish bias, resistance levels above warrant attention. As the pair approaches the upper range of its recent trading band, it may encounter profit-taking pressure. A decisive break above this resistance zone could open the door for additional upside momentum. Meanwhile, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has not yet entered overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for bulls to push higher, though traders should remain cautious of a potential pullback following any sharp advance.

**Risk factors and key downside levels**

On the downside, the confluence of the 9-day EMA and the lower boundary of the ascending channel forms a critical support zone. A clear break below this area would weaken the near-term bullish outlook, potentially leading to a phase of consolidation or a deeper correction. Market reports indicate that the unwinding of yen carry trades remains a potential external risk factor for EUR/JPY, and investors should closely monitor shifts in related capital flows.