EUR: Upside Bias Against USD Needs Confirmation Above 1.1615 – UOB

EUR/USD recently attempted to break above key resistance but failed, with short-term movement once again turning into a tug-of-war. UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann stated in their latest report that the pair briefly broke through the major resistance zone of 1.1610 to 1.1614 but failed to hold, subsequently pulling back, which has weakened the euro's upward momentum.

**Short-Term Consolidation Continues**

The analysts believe that after the failed breakout, EUR/USD is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a trading range roughly between 1.1560 and 1.1600. The pair is currently trading near 1.1571, in the lower half of the projected range, indicating that the market is still digesting the earlier spike-and-reversal, with bullish and bearish forces relatively balanced.

**Key Confirmation Level at 1.1615**

Despite the euro showing some upside bias, UOB emphasized that this bias needs further confirmation. The report clearly stated that EUR/USD must effectively break and hold above 1.1615 to truly establish a sustained upward trend against the dollar. Until then, any rally may be viewed as a short-term test of resistance rather than the start of a trend move. Market reports indicate that the bank had previously noted the euro's upside potential might be limited to testing the 1.1605 level, consistent with the current assessment logic.

**Key Points to Watch Ahead**

Investors should closely monitor the outcome at the key technical level of 1.1615. If the pair breaks above this level with strength, it could attract more buying interest and open new upside space; conversely, if it continues to face resistance and falls below the lower bound of the consolidation range near 1.1560, it could signal waning rebound momentum, exposing the pair to greater downward correction pressure.