EUR/USD Forecast: Short-Term Uptrend Intact, Correction Underway

EUR/USD was roughly flat on Thursday, with spot trading near 1.1653. The pair pulled back after hitting a high above 1.1700 last week and is now consolidating in the 1.1650 area, yet the short-term bullish structure of higher lows and higher highs remains intact. On the weekly chart, the rebound from the late-July low has entered overbought territory and is undergoing a mild bearish correction.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD maintains an ascending structure of higher highs and higher lows. The recent pullback found support and bounced quickly, indicating resilient buying interest. Key resistance sits at 1.1620–1.1640; a decisive break above could open the door toward 1.1665–1.1685. Immediate support lies at 1.1570–1.1585, a former breakout zone now turned support. A loss of this level could expose the 1.1520–1.1540 demand area. Analysts note that the 1.1580–1.1590 support zone has been tested multiple times; a breakdown on rising volume could extend the decline toward 1.1550 and even 1.1500.

Institutional outlook remains bullish for the medium term, but near-term risks are tilted to the downside for the dollar. Bank of America maintains its medium-term bullish forecast for EUR/USD, targeting 1.15 by end of this year and 1.20 by end of 2027. The bank sees upside risks for the euro in the short term and downside pressure on the dollar. However, with major events such as the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 approaching, volatility could rise; technical analysis suggests the pair may trade within a 1.0500–1.1100 range during that period. Longer-term forecasts point to a potential target of 1.0953–1.0937 for EUR/USD by September 2024, but a failure to break above that zone could trigger a medium-term downward correction.