EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls Reclaim Dominance Above 100-SMA and 50% Fibonacci, Eyeing 1.1600

EUR/USD gained strong follow-through buying on Monday, extending last week's rebound from near the 1.1500 psychological level and conquering the 1.1600 round figure during early European trading. The broadly weaker US dollar provided key support for the euro, pushing spot prices steadily higher.

**Key Technical Levels Bolster Bullish Confidence**

On the daily chart, the pair remains firmly above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the mid-Bollinger Band, steadily climbing within the upper half of its recent trading range, indicating a bullish short-term technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 63, suggesting upside momentum is not yet exhausted and has not entered overbought territory, leaving room for further tests of resistance above.

**Recent Price Action and Geopolitical Disruptions**

The current rally has not been without setbacks. Last week, EUR/USD posted four consecutive days of gains, briefly touching a high of 1.1630—the highest level since November 2021—before profit-taking emerged amid a sudden geopolitical event, pulling the pair off its peak and leaving it trading above 1.1500 on Friday. The current regrouping of bulls indicates that, after digesting the short-term shock, the market still leans toward following the prior technical uptrend.

**Key Focus Ahead**

If the pair can sustain a hold above 1.1600 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, it may retest last week's multi-year high. However, US dollar dynamics and evolving geopolitical conditions remain key variables influencing short-term direction. Market reports show investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data to assess the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path, which will significantly impact the dollar and the future trajectory of EUR/USD.