EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers Remain Dominant Above 200-Day SMA

EUR/USD consolidated at higher levels on Thursday after a continuous rally, trading around 1.1652. The pair had climbed to a three-month high of 1.1711 earlier this week, but momentum has since cooled, with prices entering a digestion phase. Still, the pair holds above the previously breached 200-day SMA, indicating that buyer control over the market has not yet faded.

**Bullish Structure Intact, Moving Averages Offer Support**

On the daily chart, EUR/USD continues to trade above the flattening 20-day SMA. Technical analysis shows the 200-day SMA is currently providing a solid floor for the pair. As long as the exchange rate stays above this key moving average, the broader bullish outlook remains intact. Market analysts note that buying interest is building just above critical technical support levels, and a fresh push higher could emerge ahead of the upcoming major central bank meetings.

**External Factors in Focus, Event-Driven Risks Ahead**

Despite the constructive technical setup, trading sentiment has turned cautious. Reports indicate that mixed U.S. economic data and anticipation surrounding Friday's Federal Reserve policy decision have prompted some traders to reduce exposure, capping near-term upside for EUR/USD. Geopolitical developments are also being watched as a potential source of volatility. However, pullbacks so far have been limited, suggesting that dip-buying demand remains active.

**Short-Term Resistance and Outlook**

On the upside, this week's high of 1.1711 serves as initial resistance. A decisive break above that level could open the door for further gains toward higher targets. On the downside, the 1.1500 psychological level and the 20-day SMA are widely seen as the first support zone. As long as the pair holds above these key moving averages, the medium-term uptrend shows no signs of reversal—though traders should remain alert to the risk of a sharp pullback following any spike higher.