EUR/USD Price Forecast: Steady Below 1.1700 as Overbought Momentum Caps Further Gains

EUR/USD held steady near 1.1680 in early European trading on Monday, with the pair last quoted at 1.16751, after multiple attempts to break above the 1.1700 round figure failed to establish a firm foothold. Fiscal intervention by the U.S. Treasury weighed on the dollar against the euro, but technical overbought momentum is curbing further upside in the exchange rate.

**Dollar Pressure and Safe-Haven Demand Pull in Opposite Directions**

News that the U.S. Treasury plans to double the size of some long-dated debt buyback operations initially pressured the dollar. However, market reports indicate this reaction is fading, as inflation risks from rising energy prices are drawing renewed attention. Meanwhile, the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday keep at least one rate hike in 2026 priced in, continuing to support higher U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn underpins the dollar. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, EUR/USD has failed to establish a clear direction.

**Technical Picture: Dense Resistance and Overbought Signals**

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains above the 200-day simple moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-to-June decline at 1.1644, with the short-term bullish bias not yet broken. But the relative strength indicator has turned overbought, suggesting momentum for further gains may be limited. The 1.1665–1.16800 zone above constitutes a dense resistance band, which has repeatedly blocked further price advances over the past few sessions, with profit-taking sell orders increasing noticeably whenever the pair approaches this area. If the price can break and hold above 1.16800, the next targets would be 1.17000 and even the 78.6% retracement at 1.1731; the 1.1590–1.1600 support zone below remains the most critical defense area at present.

**Geopolitical and Data Catalysts in the Short Term**

The standoff between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz continues to carry a geopolitical risk premium, with safe-haven demand potentially limiting dollar losses. Traders are awaiting details on U.S. sanctions against Iran and a policy speech, while preliminary PMI data from the euro area and the U.S. will also provide fresh momentum for the exchange rate. Until directional catalysts become clear, EUR/USD is likely to remain in a choppy consolidation pattern.