Euro: Upside Room Toward 1.1800 vs Dollar—UOB

EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.16749. UOB analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a constructive view on EUR/USD, with upside room pointing to 1.1800, after the pair held near 1.1680 and tested 1.1710 twice.

**Short-term momentum remains tilted to the upside**

According to UOB's analysis, EUR/USD has recently found support around 1.1680 and repeatedly tested resistance at 1.1710 to the upside, indicating persistent buying interest. The bank maintains its constructive stance, implying it sees further room for the pair to recover, targeting the 1.1800 level. However, the current spot price of 1.16749 remains below the aforementioned range, and whether the pair can effectively break above 1.1710 in the short term is a key observation point for subsequent moves.

**Key levels amid bullish-bearish divergence**

Market views on the euro's outlook are mixed. Some major Wall Street banks previously predicted EUR/USD could break above the 1.20 level, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a rise to 1.25 over the next 12 months and JPMorgan projecting a move to 1.22 by March next year. However, other institutions remain cautious. Morgan Stanley strategists, including David Adams, noted that EUR/USD could easily fall to 1.10 as medium-term investors unwind structural short-dollar positions. Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale, believes the euro's rally is largely over.

**Watch for a break of 1.1710**

From a technical perspective, 1.1710 is a short-term resistance level that has been repeatedly tested recently. If it is effectively broken, the 1.1800 upside target comes into view; if it continues to hold, the pair may consolidate around 1.1680. UOB's constructive stance suggests it leans toward a higher probability of upside, but the current price of 1.16749 has not yet exited the consolidation range, and direction selection still awaits further confirmation.