GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bears Pressure 209.00 as Downtrend Deepens

GBP/JPY extended its decline on Wednesday, widening losses for a second consecutive session, with the pair trading at 209.61598 after hovering near this week's lows. The 209.40 level is seen as the first support, and a break below could intensify selling pressure.

**Downtrend Intact, Key Support Under Pressure**

From a technical standpoint, bears remain firmly in control. Market signals indicate the pair has chosen to move lower after repeated consolidation within the 208.00–209.25 range, with sellers defending short-term resistance levels and limiting rebound momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below neutral and sloping downward, further confirming downside momentum dominance. A break below 208.00 would open the next support at 207.50, with deeper levels at 205.32 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 202.60.

**Recovery Needs to Reclaim 209.08–209.50 Zone**

To reverse the trend, bulls must first reclaim the 209.08 to 209.50 region. According to technical analysis, if GBP/JPY can recover the September 8 high of 209.08, a "bullish engulfing" pattern could form, giving buyers a chance to challenge the 210.00 level. However, stronger resistance exists near the 210.73/210.98 area where the 20-day and 50-day SMAs converge, limiting rebound potential until that is cleared.

**Short-Term Direction Hinges on 209.40**

Market focus is currently on the effectiveness of the 209.40 support level. If it is decisively broken, bears could push toward 207.50 and even 205.32; conversely, if price stabilizes above 209.40 and reorganizes an upward attack, the key will be whether it can break above 209.50 to alleviate downside pressure. Overall, until a clear reversal signal emerges in the downtrend, the pattern of resistance on rallies is likely to persist.