GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls Hold 217.00 After Breaking Below Trendline

GBP/JPY broke above a downward trendline resistance during Tuesday's session and reclaimed the 217.00 level, after earlier touching a three-week high of 217.48. At the time of writing, the cross was trading near 217.31, up 0.20% on the day. Broad yen weakness was the primary driver behind the pair's upside momentum, while the pound found some buying support amid improving recent macro sentiment.

**Yen Weakness Persists, Intervention Risk Remains a Sword of Damocles**

Behind the continued yen depreciation, the Bank of Japan's accommodative policy stance and policy divergence among major global central banks remain the core drivers. Market reports indicate that Japan's unemployment rate continues to trend lower, partly explaining the macro backdrop for yen weakness. However, intervention risk persists, as Japanese authorities could step in at any time to curb further yen softening, adding uncertainty to the upside room for yen crosses such as GBP/JPY. The upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data keeps markets flexible ahead of the release.

**Pound Fundamentals Show Concerns, but Technicals Offer Short-Term Support**

Fresh political turbulence has emerged in the UK, as the Chancellor's plan to raise income tax rates was withdrawn under internal pressure—the second policy reversal in recent weeks—further widening the government's fiscal gap. However, the pound found technical rebound momentum near 1.3011, with trendline support below at around 1.2890. After GBP/JPY broke above the downward trendline, the 217.00 level has turned into short-term support; if bulls can hold this level, the rebound could extend.

**Short-Term Focus on Nonfarm Payrolls and Weekly Close Signals**

This week's market focus shifts to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data, followed by an extended holiday weekend. Traders should closely monitor this week's weekly close for clearer trend guidance. If GBP/JPY can hold above 217.00 and break the recent high of 217.48, it may test further resistance to the upside; conversely, if the yen strengthens on intervention expectations or safe-haven flows, the cross could pull back toward trendline support.