GBP: Rangebound vs USD Ahead of Budget Release – Scotiabank

GBP/USD is currently trading near 1.36355, maintaining an overall range-bound pattern. Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the quiet UK economic data and central bank calendar contrast with recently weaker yield spreads, which has somewhat undermined sterling's fundamental support, leaving the pair consolidating within a narrow range in the mid-1.36s.

**1.36 Level Poses Notable Technical Resistance**

Scotiabank analysts view 1.36 as a key technical resistance level for GBP/USD, describing it as a "ceiling." The bank's analysis suggests that the UK's subdued growth outlook and persistent inflationary pressures limit the upside for sterling. Historically, the 1.36 area has been a significant selling point, and any rebound toward this level could trigger fresh selling, making it difficult for the pair to break through effectively in the near term. Immediate resistance is at 1.36, with secondary resistance at 1.3650.

**Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors, Market Focuses on Upcoming Data**

Sterling is currently being pulled by both bullish and bearish forces. On one hand, market bets that the Bank of England will be more cautious on rate cuts than previously expected provide some support for the pound. On the other hand, the US dollar remains firm as geopolitical risks attract safe-haven inflows, pressuring sterling. Scotiabank strategists suggest that a decisive break above 1.36 could signal a shift in momentum, but if it fails, the pair may remain range-bound or trigger a pullback. On the downside, immediate support is at 1.3450, followed by 1.3400. Forex traders are closely watching upcoming UK inflation and GDP data to gauge the BoE's next policy path.