GBP/USD Forecast: Pressured After Rejection at 1.3660, Fresh Weekly Low

GBP/USD remained under pressure on Wednesday, pulling back after being rejected at the 1.3660 resistance. Sellers tested the lower bound of the week's range around 1.3620. At press time, the pair was trading at 1.36252, extending its intraday weakness. The pair had failed to break above 1.3660, triggering short-covering, while the dollar held relatively firm ahead of key inflation data.

**Resistance Rejection, Short-Term Selling Pressure**

On the chart, GBP/USD met notable selling around 1.3660. Bulls made several attempts to push higher but eventually booked profits, driving the pair back toward weekly lows. Market sentiment showed dollar bulls remained subdued, with no aggressive positioning ahead of the U.S. July PCE price index due later in the day—a key inflation gauge for the Fed that could steer the dollar's near-term direction.

**PCE Data as Key Short-Term Catalyst**

Trading turned cautious ahead of the PCE release, with GBP/USD moves driven mostly by technical levels. A hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of sustained high U.S. rates, boosting the dollar and adding further pressure on the pound. Conversely, a softer print could weigh on the dollar, giving GBP/USD room to retest the 1.3660 resistance. Analysts suggest the pair is likely to stay rangebound until the data lands, with support near 1.3620 and resistance at 1.3660 defining the near-term trading band.

**Geopolitical and Policy Risks Persist**

Beyond inflation, geopolitical developments continue to influence FX sentiment. Reports indicate Iran and Oman have resumed talks over managing commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. has proposed lifting sanctions in exchange for reopening the strait and halting regional proxy attacks. These diplomatic signals have tempered dollar safe-haven demand but have yet to provide a clear directional push for GBP/USD. Overall, the pair's near-term path hinges on the PCE outcome and the dollar's reaction, with technical focus remaining on the validity of support at 1.3620.