GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rises Above 1.3600 as Bullish Trend Holds Above 100-Day SMA

During early European trading on Thursday, GBP/USD extended its recent strength, trading near 1.3607, maintaining a bullish tone after holding support at the 100-day moving average. The U.S. dollar index hovered near multi-month lows, as recent soft U.S. economic data prompted markets to scale back bets on further Federal Reserve tightening, compounded by U.S. Treasury buyback operations, collectively undermining the dollar's appeal.

**Dollar Under Pressure and Sterling Resilience**

The U.S. initial jobless claims report is due later on Thursday, and if the data continues to show weakness, it could further pressure the dollar. On the sterling side, UK June GDP released last weekend grew 0.3% month-on-month, and while Q2 economic growth slowed from 0.6% to 0.4%, overall resilience still supports expectations of at least one more rate hike by the Bank of England. MUFG analysts noted that sterling is the best-performing major currency so far in August, with the UK economy showing stronger-than-expected resistance to negative energy price shocks, reinforcing a constructive backdrop for the pound.

**Technical Outlook Remains Bullish**

On the daily chart, GBP/USD holds above the middle Bollinger Band and the 100-day moving average, with the Relative Strength Index near 59, indicating positive momentum without entering overbought territory, suggesting pullbacks may attract buyers. The pair is approaching resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, and a subsequent effective break above recent highs could open further upside. However, geopolitical risk premiums from U.S.-Iran tensions and inflation concerns from oil price volatility still limit the dollar's downside to some extent, also causing intermittent disruptions to sterling's rally.

**Short-Term Focus on Event Drivers**

Market attention shifts to the upcoming U.S. employment data; if results disappoint, it could intensify dollar selling pressure, paving the way for GBP/USD to rise toward the 1.3650 level. Conversely, unexpectedly strong data might trigger some profit-taking among longs, but any pullback is expected to be limited by buying support near the 100-day moving average. Overall, against the backdrop of diverging U.S.-UK monetary policy expectations and improving risk sentiment, the path of least resistance for GBP/USD remains tilted to the upside.