GBP/USD Price Forecast: Steady Near 1.3600, Bullish Bias Holds Above 100-Day SMA

GBP/USD traded near 1.3590 during early European hours on Friday, showing relatively stable movement. Market participants have recently lowered expectations for further rate hikes by the Bank of England this year, which has weakened the pound's upward momentum. Investors are now turning their attention to the annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, United States, later in the day, awaiting potential policy signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

**Cooling BOE Rate Hike Expectations**

The Bank of England voted 6-3 last week to keep interest rates unchanged, less hawkish than the market's anticipated 7-2 split. Governor Andrew Bailey subsequently downplayed the possibility of near-term tightening, stating that the disinflation trend remains on track. This stance has cooled market bets on further BOE rate hikes this year, causing the pound to lose some support from interest rate differential expectations. However, GBP/USD continues to hold above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), with the technical bullish structure remaining intact.

**Dollar Resilience Caps GBP Upside**

Despite improved global risk appetite, the US dollar index remains firm near the 100 level. ING analysts note that the dollar's resilience partly stems from persistent market expectations that the Fed may raise rates again at its September meeting. Following softer JOLTS job openings data, market pricing for the magnitude of this potential hike has narrowed from approximately 16-17 basis points to around 14 basis points. Regional survey data showing continued strength in the US services sector has limited the dollar's downside ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, indirectly capping the pound's rebound potential.

**Focus on Jackson Hole Policy Signals**

Market attention is currently centered on the Jackson Hole annual symposium. Fed Chair Powell's speech will provide crucial clues about the future path of monetary policy. If Powell delivers a hawkish message, the dollar could strengthen further, putting pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, if he hints that the rate hike cycle is nearing its end, the pound may find an opportunity to test higher resistance levels. Until this key event unfolds, GBP/USD is likely to remain range-bound, with the bullish bias above the 100-day SMA staying intact for now.