Geopolitical Conflicts and Extreme Weather Deliver Dual Shock, Global Food Crisis Alarm Sounds!

The dual shock of war and extreme weather is pushing global food supplies to the brink of crisis. HSBC's latest warning: the global grain supply-demand gap for 2026/27 will be the largest since 2006; the probability of a super El Niño exceeds 90%, with grain prices surging 30% year-on-year in August. Additionally, Ukrainian exports have nearly stalled, driving Chicago wheat futures to a two-year high — a systemic food crisis is taking shape.