Gold Price Forecast: Gold/USD Edges Higher, but Overbought RSI Warns Bulls

Spot gold extended its bullish bias on Monday, currently trading near $4644.68903, holding in the upper range seen since mid-May. A low-flying US dollar index continued to provide support for the bullion, while safe-haven demand fueled by trade talks uncertainty kept capital favoring gold assets.

**Overbought RSI Signals Short-Term Pullback Risk**

Technical indicators show that bullish momentum remains robust, but risk signals are simultaneously building. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to near 75, entering a traditionally overbought zone. According to technical analysis theory, an RSI above 70 is usually viewed as an "overbought" signal, suggesting that short-term buying may be excessively concentrated and that there is pressure for a technical correction. Although the current bullish trend has yet to reverse, elevated indicator readings imply that the risk of chasing highs is increasing.

**Key Support and Resistance Levels in Play**

After gold steadied above the $3400 level, the market had focused on a potential breakout of the $3500 round-number threshold. However, with the RSI flashing an overbought signal, the support area near $3245 has become a key near-term level to watch. If gold can hold this support zone, the ascending channel structure remains intact; conversely, a break below it on a pullback could trigger deeper profit-taking. In the medium term, progress in trade talks and evolving geopolitical conditions will be core variables determining whether gold can sustain its uptrend.

**Mixed Macro Factors at Play**

A low US dollar index near the 98.00 level provides valuation support for dollar-denominated gold. Market reports indicate that policy uncertainty stemming from tariff-related rhetoric continues to spur safe-haven flows into the gold market. However, if trade negotiations between major economies achieve a breakthrough, reducing global economic uncertainty, gold's safe-haven demand could cool accordingly. Additionally, any signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine situation could put periodic pressure on gold prices. The market is closely monitoring relevant statements and central bank policy moves to assess gold's future trajectory.