Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rally Stalls Below Former Support Near $4,070

Gold's rebound momentum has stalled before a key resistance zone. Over the previous two days, the price staged a corrective recovery from around the $4,000 mark, but upward momentum clearly faded at resistance near $4,070, a level that has shifted from prior support to pressure. Spot prices are currently trading around the $4,044 level, with intensifying long-short battles in the market and the short-term downtrend not yet reversed.

**Resistance as a "Touchstone," Bears Still in Control**

The area near $4,070 is emerging as a key test of the rebound's strength. Market signals indicate this zone concentrates multiple technical pressures, including the 61.8% extension of the March decline and prior lows of multiple trading ranges. To confirm a structural reversal, the rebound needs to break through and hold above a higher-level resistance zone; otherwise, any upside attempt may be viewed as a correction within the downtrend. Prices have since pulled back slightly after being rejected at this zone, indicating that seller power still firmly controls the short-term tape.

**Key Support Under Scrutiny, Watch Downside Risks**

Should the price fail to reclaim lost ground, market focus will shift back to key support below. The psychological $4,000 level is the first line of defense for bulls, with demand considered relatively strong in that area. However, more notably, if the price breaks below $4,074 and confirms a weekly close beneath it, downside risks will intensify significantly, with the next target potentially pointing to lower swing-low zones or even testing the validity of support from the multi-year uptrend. This implies that risk management for short positions becomes particularly crucial near current levels.

**Bottoming Signals Emerge, but Reversal Needs More Confirmation**

Despite the bearish short-term bias, some potential bottoming signs are also surfacing on the broader technical chart. Reports indicate that gold prices are touching the rising trendline support of the annual moving average, and after the prior deep dip, bears failed to push the weekly close below that trendline. The resulting risk of an "exhaustion low" cannot be ignored. However, from a trading perspective, any attempt to predict a bottom formation requires confirmation only after the price clearly reclaims and holds above key pivot zones; otherwise, stabilization after a sharp drop may merely be a pause within the downtrend.