“Hot Research Firm” Citrini: “US Treasury-Fed” Will Reach a New Agreement, Igniting Treasury Market in a Few Months

A quietly coordinated policy dance between the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve is being eyed as a potential trigger for a rally in 30-year Treasury bonds. Citrini Research's latest report notes that Bessent's "Treasury twist operation," combined with the Fed's balance sheet runoff and bank balance sheet expansion—a three-pronged approach—will systematically compress long-end Treasury supply and push down long-term yields. Fed Chair Warsh's speech at this week's Jackson Hole symposium could be a key signal.