How Does Wall Street Read Waller's Jackson Hole Debut? Hawkish "Correction" of July Communication, September No-Rate-Hike Could Further Damage Fed Credibility

The "new Fed whisperer" concluded that the Fed may not be done with fighting inflation, and the key to Waller's speech was that financial conditions are not restrictive and inflation improvement remains insufficient; he provided no specific policy path and did not explicitly state whether he supports a September rate hike. Treasury yields show "short-end pricing in hikes, while the long-end remains calmer," and Wall Street has not formed a consensus on a "September hike is certain." Institutional sources believe Waller signaled that markets should not expect near-term rate cuts and should prepare for hikes, but investors want GPS while he only offers a compass; he deliberately refused forward guidance, saying much without substantive content.