IDC: Apple Rises Against Trend, iOS Share Set for Record, Foldables as New Engine

IDC forecasts global smartphone shipments will drop a record 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion units, but total market value will still grow 6.3% to $613 billion as average selling prices surge 27.6% to $581.

As Android shipments contract 24.3%, market leaders Apple, Samsung, and Huawei are best positioned to weather the downturn—Apple's iOS market share is expected to rise nearly four percentage points to a record 23.6%.

Memory chip shortages are the main driver of this shock. NAND and DRAM costs are up over 300% year-over-year, and IDC expects memory chip prices to stay elevated through at least 2028.

IDC Vice President Francisco Jeronimo said that as manufacturers' ability to absorb costs weakens, they are increasingly passing these higher costs on to consumers.

Apple Gains Share, Android Retreats from Entry-Level Phones

IDC expects Android shipments to decline as manufacturers cut back on low-margin, low-price devices.

Apple faces far less sales pressure. IDC forecasts iOS shipments will fall only 1.3%, helping its market share reach a record 23.6%.

Huawei is also reclaiming ground. IDC expects HarmonyOS shipments to nearly triple to 51 million units, driven by Huawei's disciplined pricing strategy and gains in the China market.

Foldables Provide Another Growth Engine for Apple

IDC forecasts foldable smartphone shipments will grow 12.6% in 2026 to 22.9 million units, accelerating to 18% growth in 2027.

Senior Research Director Nabila Popal said Apple's entry fundamentally reshapes the category's outlook.

IDC predicts Apple will ship over 17 million foldable iPhones in 2027, capturing roughly 40% of the global foldable market.

IDC also expects Apple's foldable devices to generate over $45.7 billion in value, accounting for more than half of the category's total market value.

As the market shifts toward fewer units, higher prices, and greater concentration among top brands, smaller Android vendors focused on entry-level devices will face the most pressure.

AAPL stock movement: In Friday pre-market trading, Apple shares rose 0.23% to $315.29.