Indian Rupee Opens Flat as Stronger Dollar Offsets Lower Crude Prices

The Indian rupee opened nearly unchanged on Thursday, with thin post-holiday trading as a broadly stronger dollar weighed on the currency, while lower crude prices from recent highs provided some cushion. The USD/INR pair was quoted at 95.46112, remaining near the 10-day low of 95.40 touched earlier, with support holding at the 95.40 level in the near term.

**Dollar Strength vs. Oil Price Pullback**

The dollar index remained firm, supported by risk-off sentiment and U.S. Treasury yields, pressuring Asian currencies including the rupee. Meanwhile, crude prices retreated from levels elevated by earlier Middle East tensions, easing import cost pressure for India, a major crude importer. These offsetting factors kept the rupee's movement limited after the open.

**Rupee Still in Multi-Year Low Territory**

The rupee had earlier breached the 94-per-dollar level, hitting a phase low, amid Middle East tensions, high oil prices, and sustained foreign outflows. Market reports indicate overseas investors have recently withdrawn significant amounts from Indian equities and bonds, keeping sustained pressure on the rupee. While the exchange rate has not weakened further, it remains near multi-year lows, with market sentiment staying cautious.

**Near-Term Focus on Oil Prices and Fund Flows**

Analysts noted that if crude prices regain a foothold above $100 per barrel, India's import costs and inflation pressures could re-intensify, potentially raising the risk of further rupee depreciation. According to earlier views from Dilip Parmar, currency analyst at HDFC Securities, the Reserve Bank of India's recent intervention in the forex market has been relatively conservative, possibly preserving policy space for future responses. Attention will remain on whether oil price trends and foreign fund flows can stabilize.