IonQ Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook After SkyWater Acquisition, Shares Up Over 6% in Pre-Market

IonQ Inc. shares rose more than 6% in Tuesday pre-market trading after the quantum computing company raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook following the acquisition of SkyWater Technology.

IonQ now expects 2026 revenue of $450 million to $460 million. The forecast includes SkyWater's contribution from July 31 through December 31.

The stock rose as broader markets showed mixed performance. Nasdaq futures were up 0.06%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.24%.

IonQ said its updated outlook reflects the larger market opportunity and expanded manufacturing capacity of the combined company.

The forecast excludes estimated internal revenue related to commercial agreements that existed between IonQ and SkyWater prior to the acquisition.

SkyWater Deal Expands IonQ's Manufacturing Base

IonQ said it is developing a shared technology roadmap with SkyWater. The company expects the merger to accelerate its progress toward commercial-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing.

"As we prepare to host our first joint Investor Day today, our updated full-year guidance highlights the market traction of our quantum platform and the foundational manufacturing scale that SkyWater provides," said Chairman and CEO Niccolo de Masi.

Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer Inder Singh said the first combined guidance highlights the financial and operational benefits of the acquisition.

IonQ will host an Investor Day webcast on Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

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Can Quantum Computers Crack Bitcoin?

Separately, IonQ published an end-to-end blueprint showing how a fault-tolerant quantum computer could crack secp256k1, the 256-bit elliptic curve used by Bitcoin.

The research estimates that a system of roughly 20,000 physical qubits could complete the task in about 26 days. However, the study is a resource estimate, not a demonstration on existing quantum hardware.

IonQ said the required hardware aligns with systems on its roadmap around 2028. The findings highlight future security risks for systems that rely on elliptic curve signatures.

Technical Analysis

IonQ sits in a mixed technical landscape. The stock is 0.4% above its 20-day simple moving average of $42.06 and 2.4% above its 50-day simple moving average of $41.21.

However, IonQ remains 11.7% below its 100-day simple moving average of $47.80 and 4.5% below its 200-day simple moving average of $44.22. These levels could act as resistance if the rally continues.

The relative strength index is 46.31. This indicates neutral momentum, with the stock neither overbought nor oversold.

Meanwhile, the 20-day simple moving average remains above the 50-day simple moving average, supporting the recent trend. However, after a death cross in August, the 50-day simple moving average remains below the 200-day simple moving average. Therefore, the long-term technical picture remains cautious.

Key resistance: $48, near the 100-day simple moving average.

Key support: $40, near the 20-day exponential moving average of $40.64.

Analyst Outlook

IonQ has a unanimous Buy rating from 11 analysts. The average price target is $70, with estimates ranging from $50 to $100.

Benchmark maintained a Buy rating and a $60 price target on August 6. Needham maintained a Buy rating and a $65 price target. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an Overweight rating and a $70 price target.

Edge Ranking

IonQ's Edge momentum score is 14.99, indicating weak trend strength. That reading aligns with the stock still trading below its longer-term moving averages.

Despite Tuesday's bounce, the technical landscape remains mixed. Sustained trading above the $44 to $48 range could strengthen the bullish case. Meanwhile, a drop below $40 could suggest the rally is losing momentum.

Major ETF Holdings

IonQ has a 16.86% weight in the Corgi Quantum Computing 2x Daily ETF. Its weight is 4.30% in the WisdomTree Quantum Computing Fund ETF and 4.61% in the Moonvest ETF.

Given these weights, ETF inflows and outflows could create buying or selling pressure on IonQ shares.

Price Action

IONQ share price movement: In Tuesday pre-market trading, IonQ shares rose 6.06% to $41.91.