JPMorgan Projects Nonfarm Payrolls: Too Strong Could Drag Stocks, Too Weak Could Trigger Stagflation Concerns

On September 1, JPMorgan's market intelligence team believes that after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data is released this Friday, the S&P 500 index is more likely to weaken. Led by Andrew Tyler, the JPMorgan team expects that a "good news is bad news" market environment could emerge following the data release, and considers that new jobs added between 30,000 and 70,000 would be an appropriate range for the market. Analysts expect an increase of 55,000 jobs."Stronger nonfarm payrolls data could push up bond yields and drag down stocks. The logic is that more jobs lead to more consumption, and this overall strength would boost companies' confidence in further hiring," the team said in a report."However, if the data significantly misses expectations, such as another decline in job numbers, it could rekindle market concerns about stagflation."