Next Week's Macro Outlook: Gold "Marking Time" with Unclear Direction? CPI to Test Fed's Pause-Rate-Hike Expectations

PANews, October 10 news. Over the past week, the US-Iran standoff persisted, but Trump explicitly ruled out military action before the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the Fed's meeting minutes and remarks from multiple officials sent a consistent signal: although inflation remains elevated and another rate hike is possible this year, October may not necessarily see immediate action. The following are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times Beijing time):

Monday TBD, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings are held in Bangkok, through the 18th.

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Tuesday, 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers remarks;;

Tuesday 15:45, Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India;;

Tuesday 20:15, US ADP employment change for the week ending September 26;;

Wednesday 4:00, 2028 FOMC voter, Boston Fed President Collins delivers remarks;;

Wednesday 17:40, Fed Governor Bowman delivers remarks;;

Wednesday 20:30, US September CPI, core CPI;;

Thursday 2:00, Fed releases Beige Book economic snapshot;;

Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, US September retail sales month-over-month, US September PPI and core PPI, US October New York Fed manufacturing index, US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index;;

Friday 4:30, 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers remarks;;

Friday ight11:30, Fed Chairman Warsh attends the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva;;

Friday ight0:00, US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9.

US September CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday, and investors will use it to judge the possible timing of the Fed's next rate hike. Although gold has withstood multiple headwinds, downside risks remain, and the upcoming inflation data next week is particularly critical. Following recent weak US employment data, and after multiple Fed policymakers indicated there is still time to wait before another rate hike, according to LSEG data, the market currently prices only a 19% probability of a rate hike on October 28, whereas this probability had previously been as high as 70%. However, the market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in December.