NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rises Above 0.5950, Technical Outlook Bullish

NZD/USD extended its gains on Friday, trading near 0.59616, after touching the 0.5960 region earlier at the time of writing. Hawkish RBNZ signals and technical support jointly drove the New Zealand dollar higher, but upside resistance levels remain a key focus.

**RBNZ Hawkish Stance Boosts NZD**

The hawkish signals from the RBNZ are the core driver behind the NZD's strength. According to BNZ analysts, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% in September, providing fundamental support for the NZD. Meanwhile, on the USD side, the US Treasury's plan to expand long-term Treasury buyback operations helps curb long-end borrowing costs, undermining the dollar's relative yield advantage and objectively creating room for the NZD to move higher.

**Technical Picture: Bullish Structure Above 100-Day SMA**

From a technical perspective, according to market analysis, the NZD/USD spot price remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands, with the recent rebound well supported. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stands at 63, approaching but not yet reaching overbought territory, with an overall bullish bias. However, the 0.5950 to 0.6000 region presents strong psychological resistance; if bulls fail to break through and hold above it, the pair faces a risk of pulling back toward 0.5940 and even 0.5910.

**Potential Risks Cannot Be Overlooked**

Despite the short-term bullish tilt, multiple headwinds remain in the market. Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) noted that leveraged fund short positioning in the NZD remains at elevated levels, partly reflecting persistent market skepticism about the RBNZ's tightening path. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions could boost risk-off sentiment, triggering capital flows back into the USD and exerting periodic pressure on high-beta commodity currencies like the NZD. Overall, until the key resistance at 0.6000 is decisively broken, upside room for NZD/USD remains somewhat constrained.