Oil Prices Post Sharp Weekly Losses as Investors Assess US-Iran Conflict Risk After Midterm Elections

Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled modestly higher on Friday but still recorded substantial weekly losses, as investors assessed renewed military tensions between Washington and Tehran following the US midterm elections.

Brent crude rose 3 cents to settle at $98.32 per barrel, while WTI gained 31 cents to settle at $90.83. Despite the modest gains during Friday's trading session, Brent crude still fell more than 16% on the week, while WTI dropped nearly 13%.

US-Iran Tensions Put Oil Supply Risks in Focus

Amid oil price volatility, investors are assessing whether the conclusion of the US midterm elections will open the door to new action against Iran that could threaten Middle East oil supplies.

Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC's Squawk Box Asia that there is an 80% chance of renewed hostilities. He also warned that both crude benchmarks could rise above $100 per barrel.

McNally said: "As long as the core divergence in the deal space remains absent, escalation will persist."

Diplomatic Outlook and Strait of Hormuz Supply Risks

Diplomatic prospects remain in focus after Iran reportedly submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington via Qatar.

Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard reported Thursday three more attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting ongoing security risks to this critical global oil shipping artery.

Last month, OPEC+ agreed to maintain its production target for December 2026 unchanged. The decision came after the alliance completed the gradual unwinding of 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts in September.

According to the American Automobile Association, the national average price for regular gasoline on Friday was $4.0688 per gallon, about 19% below the record high of $5.0165 set on June 14, 2022.

Friday's average diesel price was $6.2305 per gallon, about 4.5% below the record high of $6.5276 set on September 22, 2026.

Donald Trump Jr. said that high oil prices linked to the conflict with Iran contributed to Republican losses in the midterm elections, adding a domestic political dimension. His remarks highlighted the domestic political consequences of rising energy costs.

Oil prices remained volatile throughout 2026 as the US-Israel war with Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted production, refining, and transportation. The International Energy Agency has previously highlighted supply losses, attacks on energy infrastructure, and restrictions on global oil shipping.