Predict.fun: Democrats Sweep Both Chambers in US Midterms at 77% Probability

On November 3, latest data from prediction market platform Predict.fun showed a 77% probability that Democrats will take both the Senate and the House in the US midterm elections. Mainstream polls also favor Democrats: Silver Bulletin's national congressional ballot polling average as of November 2 shows Democrats leading Republicans by 8.9 percentage points; the Seldon forecasting model gives Democrats a 79% and 99% probability of taking the Senate and House, respectively.

The probability of "Republicans holding the Senate and Democrats taking the House" stands at 19%, the second-largest scenario in the market's view. The Polling Forecasting model notes that polls have overestimated Democrats in 5 of the last 6 elections; if polls again overestimate Democrats by 3.5 percentage points this time, the Senate would remain under Republican control. The probability of "Republicans holding both chambers" is 5%; "Democrats taking the Senate and Republicans holding the House" is 1%. Current mainstream analysis suggests Democrats are most likely to gain a net 12 to 22 seats in the House, far exceeding the 3-seat threshold needed to reclaim a majority. Additionally, in the market related to "Democrats retaking the House," Predict.fun assigns a 96% probability.

[BlockBeats]