Report: Bitcoin Pressured by ETF Outflows and Rate Hike Expectations, CPI Data May Determine Short-Term Direction

PANews, October 13 — CoinShares' latest bi-weekly report shows that BTC approached $87,000 on October 5, then fell to around $80,300, before rebounding to approximately $83,500, remaining largely flat over the past two weeks and still about 33% below its October peak last year. Last week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $679 million, with Wednesday alone recording $485 million in outflows, the largest single-day outflow since June; ETH ETFs saw cumulative outflows of nearly $700 million over nine consecutive trading days. BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq has rebounded to around 40%, its long-term average, while its correlation with inflation-linked bonds continues to strengthen.

On the macro front, September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, with markets pricing in about a 20% chance of an October rate hike and nearly 70% for December; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.37%, the highest since 2002. CoinShares believes this week's CPI is a key variable: if core CPI rises 0.3% month-over-month, it could reinforce October rate hike expectations, putting BTC at risk of retesting $80,000; if it comes in at 0.2% or lower, it would support waiting until December.