Russian crude oil exports fall to five-week low, Baltic port operations largely recovered

(1) Despite a significant recovery in operations at Russia's key Baltic Sea ports from earlier disruptions, Russian crude oil exports fell to their lowest level in over a month.

(2) Tanker data show that in the four weeks to October 25, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports edged down to 3.55 million barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from the four weeks to October 18, marking the lowest level in five weeks.

(3) However, export flows rebounded in the most recent week: 12 tankers departed from the Primorsk terminal near St. Petersburg last week, compared to just 4 in the previous week, when the port saw no vessel arrivals or departures for three consecutive days. Past similar disruptions have typically been linked to equipment maintenance.

(4) A recent reduction in Kyiv's attacks on Russian refineries has allowed Moscow to boost refining throughput, which may have diverted some crude oil that would otherwise have been exported to domestic refineries. In the seven days to October 25, no attacks on Russian refining facilities were reported.

(5) Meanwhile, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are pushing for the launch of trilateral talks.