Russian Finance Minister: 2026 Budget Deficit May Reach 3% of GDP, Plans to Expand Welfare Fund

① Russia's Finance Minister stated that the budget execution deficit in 2026 could reach up to approximately 3% of GDP.

② The Russian side plans to increase the National Welfare Fund by about 600 billion to 1 trillion rubles.

③ Against the backdrop of energy revenues being affected by sanctions and export restrictions, the parallel expansion of the deficit and the welfare fund may reflect the balancing pressure between fiscal buffers and spending needs. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of oil price trends and the enforcement intensity of sanctions on Russia's fiscal situation.