Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Sideways Near $68.50, Awaiting Fed's Warsh Speech

During Thursday's European trading session, silver prices traded near $69.18, posting a slight intraday gain, though the overall weekly range remained in a sideways consolidation between $67.35 and $70.00. Market sentiment stayed cautious, with investors broadly awaiting catalysts from key events.

**Market Focus on Warsh's Monetary Policy Stance**

Market attention was entirely centered on the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh. According to FXStreet, investors will closely monitor his testimony to assess his future policy guidance direction, particularly whether he will prioritize maintaining central bank independence or could be influenced by Washington's political agenda. Previously, Warsh was known for opposing quantitative easing during former Chair Bernanke's tenure, and his hawkish reputation is a key factor impacting precious metals prices. In late January, news of his nomination triggered a sharp correction of over 30% in silver prices from the historical high near $121.60.

**US Dollar and Data Weigh on Precious Metals**

Recent strong US economic data provided support for the US dollar, thereby capping upside for precious metals like silver. Data showed US March retail sales rose 1.7%, beating the market expectation of 1.4%, reflecting resilient consumer demand. Additionally, according to market reports, President Trump publicly stated before the hearing that he would be "disappointed" if Warsh did not cut interest rates quickly after taking office, intensifying market concerns over potential political interference in Fed policy.

**Geopolitical Factors Offer Underlying Support**

Despite pressure from monetary policy expectations and a stronger US dollar, geopolitical tensions continued to provide some safe-haven support for silver. Market reports indicated ongoing US-Iran tensions, with reports suggesting Tehran might be willing to resume negotiations with Washington, leaving the Middle East geopolitical outlook fraught with uncertainty, which to some extent limited downside for silver prices.