Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Tests 100-Day SMA, Upside Extends

Silver prices extended their advance on Thursday, rising over 1.70% to trade near $67.98 per ounce. Despite a brief recovery in US Treasury yields, yields retreated again after the Treasury Department announced a buyback of government bonds, lending support to the silver price. Market focus is now on whether silver can decisively break above the key technical level of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

**Short-term momentum firm, but long-term moving average resistance persists**

On the daily chart, silver has held above the 50-day SMA ($61.36) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($63.10), with the near-term outlook turning constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 59, while the positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line and histogram remain elevated, suggesting bullish momentum remains intact. However, the downtrend defined by the 100-day SMA ($68.77) and 200-day SMA ($71.64) continues to cap gains overhead, and a decisive break above these long-term averages is needed to confirm a trend reversal. Initial resistance on the upside sits at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $68.12, followed closely by the 100-day SMA.

**Four-hour chart shows consolidation**

On the four-hour chart, silver is holding above the 50-period SMA ($63.60) and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs (roughly in the $60.80-$59.90 range), maintaining a short-term bullish bias. The RSI (14) is around 55, indicating mildly positive momentum without being overextended. The MACD remains below the zero line with a negative signal line, suggesting that upside pressure is easing slightly following the latest rally. To the downside, initial support is at the 23.6% retracement level of $64.38, followed by the 50-period SMA at $63.60.

**Key resistance battle in focus**

Market reports indicate that silver is consolidating below recent cyclical highs, and whether it can break above the 100-day SMA at $68.77 will be key for the near-term direction. A successful move above this average would open the door to the 200-day SMA at $71.64 and the 50% retracement level at $72.18. Conversely, a failure to hold gains could lead to a retest of the $63.60-$64.38 support zone. Analysts note that the broader downtrend remains intact until prices clearly break above the long-term moving averages.