Strait of Hormuz Flows Remain Low, Middle East Crude Exports Show Resilience

【Strait of Hormuz Flows Remain Low, Middle East Crude Exports Show Resilience】

⑴ Institutional data shows that the seven-day average oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz stands at approximately 9.34 million barrels per day, just over half of the pre-war baseline of 17.15 million barrels per day, with transit volumes still clearly constrained.

⑵ However, non-Iranian crude supply from the Middle East to international markets has averaged around 16.7 million barrels per day since October, a slight uptick from the pre-war level of 16.3 million barrels per day, indicating overall export resilience.

⑶ This contrast suggests that despite low Hormuz transit flows, regional exports appear to have been partially offset through alternative routes and sources, with market concerns over supply disruption not yet fully materializing.

⑷ Key watch points ahead include whether Hormuz flows can recover and whether Middle East export diversification can persist; if geopolitical risks escalate again, oil price volatility may increase.