Strongest El Nino Approaching? Barclays: Palm Oil, Rubber, Coffee May Rise 30%-40% in 18 Months

Barclays warns the current El Nino could peak at 3.2°C, about 15% stronger than 2015-16, setting a historical record. Supply shocks will first hit Southeast Asian agricultural regions, then transmit to industrial metals, with copper and aluminum rising up to 20% and thermal coal potentially up 40%. Combined with years of underinvestment and declining inventories, a broad commodities tightening is already emerging.