Trump Tariff Policy on Canada 'Most Likely to Back Down,' Says Scaramucci; Crypto Market Skeptical of Trade Deal

Crypto traders are skeptical that the US will lower tariffs on Canada before the end of August, despite Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci predicting the two countries will reach a deal "soon."

Polymarket Odds Plunge

Polymarket, built on Polygon, now gives only an 8% probability of a diplomatic agreement to reduce Canadian tariffs being announced by August 31, down sharply from 46% a week earlier.

The odds of a deal by the end of 2026 are notably higher, at 58%.

Carney Vows Retaliatory Tariffs

US-Canada trade talks collapsed minutes before Friday's midnight deadline, triggering Washington's threat of 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods. Both sides accused each other of making unreasonable last-minute demands.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa will impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods starting September 8, matching the US tariff levels dollar-for-dollar.

Trade tensions escalated further this week as President Trump threatened on Monday to raise tariffs to 50% on Canadian cars, auto parts, and steel.

Trump accused Canada of maintaining a $60 billion trade surplus at US expense and of closing its market to American agricultural products.

Scaramucci Sees Faster Resolution

Meanwhile, former White House communications director Scaramucci predicted on Monday's episode of the podcast "The Rest Is Politics US" that a trade deal would be reached within "the next two weeks."

"I think that's the most likely scenario," he said. "He [Trump] is facing pressure from these northern states, and with midterm elections coming up, he'll back down in this situation [Trump always backs down], just as he has done consistently."