US Crude: Choppy Upside, Buy on Dips

【US Crude: Choppy Upside, Buy on Dips】

(1) Analysis Rationale: Saudi Defense Minister's visit to Tehran for talks has cooled expectations of escalating US-Iran conflict, with oil prices falling consecutively; however, ongoing clashes involving Houthi forces and Hezbollah, along with persistent risks to Hormuz transit, mean geopolitics-driven premiums are unlikely to fully dissipate. US midterm elections and EIA inventory data pose downside variables, while net long CTA positioning offers algorithmic support. Prices are repeatedly testing levels above the $100 mark, warranting a range-bound approach in the short term.

(2) Key Focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US dollar index

(3) Resistance: 101.60, 102.50, 103.00

(4) Support: 100.00, 99.00, 98.00