US-Iran Ceasefire Extended to October? Crypto Traders Turn Bullish as Qatar PM Heads to Tehran

Crypto traders are raising the probability pricing that the US-Iran ceasefire can hold through October, even as key mediator Qatar works to restart diplomacy between the two countries.

Road Back to Negotiations

According to Reuters, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is scheduled to visit Tehran on Thursday to discuss ongoing mediation efforts and other regional issues.

In a post on X, a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the Middle Eastern country is working to "encourage a return to the path of negotiations between the US and Iran."

The spokesperson said Qatar's priorities are "restoring normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," ensuring global energy and food security, and safeguarding supply chain security.

Prime Minister's Advisor and Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs @majedalansari: Qatar continues its efforts to encourage the resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran

Doha | August 25, 2026

Prime Minister's Advisor and Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs...

— Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs August 25, 2026

Diplomatic Breakthrough Still Distant

The US accuses Tehran of violating a memorandum of understanding by attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has also reimposed a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports.

With fighting halted for nearly a month, the US has shifted to economic sanctions to pressure Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new sanctions action earlier this week, targeting financial networks, companies, and countries that help Iran generate revenue and evade sanctions.

Iran has called the sanctions "systematic bullying," accusing the US of "destroying" international law.

Polymarket Bets on the Ceasefire

Meanwhile, bettors on Polygon-based Polymarket currently assign a 90% probability that the ceasefire will hold through September 15, up from 48% a month ago.

Similarly, the probability of the ceasefire holding through September 30 has risen to 83%, while the odds of it lasting through October 30 have climbed to 75%.